Estadística

Ranking de precisión ¿Quién acertó en las elecciones CyL 2026?

Por La Región Leonesa · 17/03/2026

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Ranking de precisión ¿Quién acertó en las elecciones CyL 2026?

Analizamos las 6 principales encuestadoras del panorama nacional para medir su grado de precisión en las últimas elecciones 2026 a las Cortes autonómicas

Número de Escaños

[custom-html enable_caching="yes"]<div class="container my-5"> <div class="card shadow-sm mb-4"> <div class="card-header border-0 text-white" style="background-color: #911046;"> <h5 class="mb-0 text-white">Sondeo Sigma Dos vs Realidad</h5> </div> <div class="card-body"> <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="table align-middle"> <thead> <tr class="table-light"> <th>Partido</th> <th class="text-center">Sondeo (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Realidad (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Diferencia</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>PP</strong></td> <td class="text-center">32,5</td> <td class="text-center">31,4</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold">-1,1</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>PSOE</strong></td> <td class="text-center">27,0</td> <td class="text-center">30,0</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold">+3,0</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>VOX</strong></td> <td class="text-center">15,5</td> <td class="text-center">17,6</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold">+2,1</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>UPL</strong></td> <td class="text-center">3,5</td> <td class="text-center">4,3</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold">+0,8</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Soria ¡YA!</strong></td> <td class="text-center">1,5</td> <td class="text-center">3,1</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold">+1,6</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card border-0 shadow-sm p-4" style="background-color: #f8f9fa;"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center"> <span class="text-muted text-uppercase small fw-bold">Índice de Acierto</span> <div class="display-4 fw-bold" style="color: #911046;">89,6%</div> </div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="progress" style="height: 30px; background-color: #e9ecef;"> <div class="progress-bar progress-bar-striped text-white fw-bold" role="progressbar" style="width: 89.6%; background-color: #911046;" aria-valuenow="89.6" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> 89,6% </div> </div> <p class="mt-2 mb-0 text-muted small">Grado de puntería del sondeo respecto al escrutinio final del 100%.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>[/custom-html]

[custom-html enable_caching="yes"]<div class="container my-5"> <div class="card shadow-sm mb-4"> <div class="card-header border-0" style="background-color: #911046;"> <h5 class="mb-0 text-white py-1">Sondeo CIS vs Realidad</h5> </div> <div class="card-body p-0"> <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="table align-middle mb-0"> <thead> <tr class="table-light"> <th class="ps-3">Partido</th> <th class="text-center">Sondeo (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Realidad (%)</th> <th class="text-center pe-3">Diferencia</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PP</strong></td> <td class="text-center">33,4</td> <td class="text-center">31,4</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-2,0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PSOE</strong></td> <td class="text-center">32,3</td> <td class="text-center">30,0</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-2,3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>VOX</strong></td> <td class="text-center">16,1</td> <td class="text-center">17,6</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+1,5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>UPL</strong></td> <td class="text-center">4,9</td> <td class="text-center">4,3</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-0,6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>Soria ¡YA!</strong></td> <td class="text-center">0,7</td> <td class="text-center">3,1</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+2,4</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card border-0 shadow-sm p-4" style="background-color: #f8f9fa;"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center"> <span class="text-muted text-uppercase small fw-bold">Índice de Acierto</span> <div class="display-4 fw-bold" style="color: #911046;">91,2%</div> </div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="progress" style="height: 30px; background-color: #e9ecef;"> <div class="progress-bar progress-bar-striped text-white fw-bold" role="progressbar" style="width: 91.2%; background-color: #911046;" aria-valuenow="91.2" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> 91,2% </div> </div> <p class="mt-2 mb-0 text-muted small text-start">Grado de puntería del sondeo respecto al escrutinio final del 100%.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>[/custom-html]

[custom-html enable_caching="yes"]<div class="container my-5"> <div class="card shadow-sm mb-4"> <div class="card-header border-0" style="background-color: #911046;"> <h5 class="mb-0 text-white py-1">Sondeo GAD3 vs Realidad</h5> </div> <div class="card-body p-0"> <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="table align-middle mb-0"> <thead> <tr class="table-light"> <th class="ps-3">Partido</th> <th class="text-center">Sondeo (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Realidad (%)</th> <th class="text-center pe-3">Diferencia</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PP</strong></td> <td class="text-center">34,8</td> <td class="text-center">31,4</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-3,4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PSOE</strong></td> <td class="text-center">28,6</td> <td class="text-center">30,0</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+1,4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>VOX</strong></td> <td class="text-center">19,5</td> <td class="text-center">17,6</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-1,9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>UPL</strong></td> <td class="text-center">5,4</td> <td class="text-center">4,3</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-1,1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>Soria ¡YA!</strong></td> <td class="text-center">1,1</td> <td class="text-center">1,6</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+0,5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card border-0 shadow-sm p-4" style="background-color: #f8f9fa;"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center"> <span class="text-muted text-uppercase small fw-bold">Índice de Acierto</span> <div class="display-4 fw-bold" style="color: #911046;">91,7%</div> </div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="progress" style="height: 30px; background-color: #e9ecef;"> <div class="progress-bar progress-bar-striped text-white fw-bold" role="progressbar" style="width: 91.7%; background-color: #911046;" aria-valuenow="91.7" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> 91,7% </div> </div> <p class="mt-2 mb-0 text-muted small text-start">Grado de puntería basado en los datos de GAD3 de marzo de 2026.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>[/custom-html]

[custom-html enable_caching="yes"]<div class="container my-5"> <div class="card shadow-sm mb-4"> <div class="card-header border-0" style="background-color: #911046;"> <h5 class="mb-0 text-white py-1">Sondeo SocioMétrica vs Realidad</h5> </div> <div class="card-body p-0"> <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="table align-middle mb-0"> <thead> <tr class="table-light"> <th class="ps-3">Partido</th> <th class="text-center">Sondeo (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Realidad (%)</th> <th class="text-center pe-3">Diferencia</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PP</strong></td> <td class="text-center">31,5</td> <td class="text-center">35,5</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+4,0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PSOE</strong></td> <td class="text-center">28,2</td> <td class="text-center">30,7</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+2,5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>VOX</strong></td> <td class="text-center">20,5</td> <td class="text-center">18,9</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-1,6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>UPL</strong></td> <td class="text-center">5,5</td> <td class="text-center">4,4</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-1,1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>Soria ¡YA!</strong></td> <td class="text-center">1,2</td> <td class="text-center">0,7</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-0,5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card border-0 shadow-sm p-4" style="background-color: #f8f9fa;"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center"> <span class="text-muted text-uppercase small fw-bold">Índice de Acierto</span> <div class="display-4 fw-bold" style="color: #911046;">90,3%</div> </div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="progress" style="height: 30px; background-color: #e9ecef;"> <div class="progress-bar progress-bar-striped text-white fw-bold" role="progressbar" style="width: 90.3%; background-color: #911046;" aria-valuenow="90.3" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> 90,3% </div> </div> <p class="mt-2 mb-0 text-muted small text-start">Grado de puntería del sondeo respecto al escrutinio final del 100%.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>[/custom-html]

[custom-html enable_caching="yes"]<div class="container my-5"> <div class="card shadow-sm mb-4"> <div class="card-header border-0" style="background-color: #911046;"> <h5 class="mb-0 text-white py-1">Sondeo Hamalgama Métrica vs Realidad</h5> </div> <div class="card-body p-0"> <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="table align-middle mb-0"> <thead> <tr class="table-light"> <th class="ps-3">Partido</th> <th class="text-center">Sondeo (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Realidad (%)</th> <th class="text-center pe-3">Diferencia</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PP</strong></td> <td class="text-center">33,2</td> <td class="text-center">31,4</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-1,8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PSOE</strong></td> <td class="text-center">28,1</td> <td class="text-center">30,0</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+1,9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>VOX</strong></td> <td class="text-center">20,6</td> <td class="text-center">17,6</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-3,0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>UPL</strong></td> <td class="text-center">5,1</td> <td class="text-center">4,3</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-0,8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>Soria ¡YA!</strong></td> <td class="text-center">0,9</td> <td class="text-center">1,6</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+0,7</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card border-0 shadow-sm p-4" style="background-color: #f8f9fa;"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center"> <span class="text-muted text-uppercase small fw-bold">Índice de Acierto</span> <div class="display-4 fw-bold" style="color: #911046;">91,8%</div> </div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="progress" style="height: 30px; background-color: #e9ecef;"> <div class="progress-bar progress-bar-striped text-white fw-bold" role="progressbar" style="width: 91.8%; background-color: #911046;" aria-valuenow="91.8" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> 91,8% </div> </div> <p class="mt-2 mb-0 text-muted small text-start">Grado de puntería del sondeo respecto al escrutinio final del 100%.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>[/custom-html]

[custom-html enable_caching="yes"]<div class="container my-5"> <div class="card shadow-sm mb-4"> <div class="card-header border-0" style="background-color: #911046;"> <h5 class="mb-0 text-white py-1">Sondeo 40dB. vs Realidad</h5> </div> <div class="card-body p-0"> <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="table align-middle mb-0"> <thead> <tr class="table-light"> <th class="ps-3">Partido</th> <th class="text-center">Sondeo (%)</th> <th class="text-center">Realidad (%)</th> <th class="text-center pe-3">Diferencia</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PP</strong></td> <td class="text-center">33,3</td> <td class="text-center">35,5</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+2,2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>PSOE</strong></td> <td class="text-center">28,4</td> <td class="text-center">30,7</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+2,3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>VOX</strong></td> <td class="text-center">21,1</td> <td class="text-center">18,9</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-2,2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>UPL</strong></td> <td class="text-center">3,7</td> <td class="text-center">4,4</td> <td class="text-center text-success fw-bold pe-3">+0,7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ps-3"><strong>Soria ¡YA!</strong></td> <td class="text-center">1,4</td> <td class="text-center">0,7</td> <td class="text-center text-danger fw-bold pe-3">-0,7</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card border-0 shadow-sm p-4" style="background-color: #f8f9fa;"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-md-4 text-center"> <span class="text-muted text-uppercase small fw-bold">Índice de Acierto</span> <div class="display-4 fw-bold" style="color: #911046;">91,9%</div> </div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="progress" style="height: 30px; background-color: #e9ecef;"> <div class="progress-bar progress-bar-striped text-white fw-bold" role="progressbar" style="width: 91.9%; background-color: #911046;" aria-valuenow="91.9" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> 91,9% </div> </div> <p class="mt-2 mb-0 text-muted small text-start">Grado de puntería del sondeo respecto al escrutinio final del 100%.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>[/custom-html]

Ranking de acierto de las 6 empresas analizadas:

40dB.: 91,9%
Amalgama Métrica: 91,8%
GAD3: 91,7%
CIS: 91,2%
SocioMétrica: 90,3%
Sigma Dos: 89,6%

Etiquetado como

elecciones sondeo 2026 Castilla y León Cortes de Castilla y León

Autor

La Región Leonesa

Perfil oficial de La Región Leonesa

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Ranking de precisión ¿Quién acertó en las elecciones CyL 2026?

Número de Escaños

Ranking de acierto de las 6 empresas analizadas:

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